Forecast : the restaurant in full (r)evolution mode

What was the restaurant like 35 years ago? And what will it become in the decade to come? With the help of Bernard Boutboul, who in 1989 founded Gira Conseil, a company specialising in marketing and development strategy, we take a look back and analyse a restaurant ecosystem that is constantly changing.

We only need to look at a few figures to see the metamorphosis. In 1993, the top 10 restaurant chains included four cafeterias and two table-service outlets. In 2003, 60% of the top 10 were counter-service chains; some 20 years later, the proportion has risen to 90%. The top of the podium is occupied by sandwich/salad and burger chains. It should be noted, however, that the food counter sales are largely driven by food service units outside the commercial sector: mass catering, automatic vending machines and alternative food channels.

In 30 years, the number of chains has increased by 310%. This demonstrates the attractiveness of a sector that is constantly reinventing itself. “This constant evolution is made necessary by the ever-shortening lifespan of our concepts,” emphasises Bernard Boutboul. If 20 years ago chains such as Buffalo Grill or Courtepaille were able to survive the decades without adapting, those days are long gone. A concept that used to last seven years now has a lifespan cut to two years. The market, for its part, has been heading towards global saturation for several years now. The supply of dining options is undoubtedly outstripping demand.

A real upheaval
Some 25 years ago, dining options were divided between the traditional auberge, brasserie, restaurant and bistro on the one hand, and on the other hand, fast-food outlets like McDonald’s and Quick, not to mention all the kebab trucks. The burger, for its part, has experienced exponential growth, with volumes multiplying 14-fold over the last 10 years. No other product has experi­enced such growth. So much so, in fact, that the market is reaching maturity. As a result, consumers are picking and choosing the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. Pizza is in second place, with the French and Americans as the world’s leaders in per capita consumption. By comparison, the Italians are only in fifth place. The sandwich still leads the pack, confirming the success of bread-based products. However, the options have grown considerably, with the creation of 51 fast-food products in 2024 alone. France is the only country with so many fast-food mono-products.

The turning point of the 2000s
In 2001, one man turned the industry on its head: Alain Cojean, founder of the eponymous restaurant chain. Seen as a UFO at the time, he established upscale fast food in the landscape, paving the way for players such as Exki and Prêt à Manger, as well as Michelin-starred chefs such as Olivier Belin, two stars in Plomodiern and co-founder of Père & Fish, and others less fortunate, such as Michel Sarran and his Croq’Michel, or the chef Anne-Sophie Pic, both of whom have learned the hard way about profitability in the high-end fast-food sector, where the acceptable price threshold is quickly reached. But while some are suffering, others are doing very well: McDonald’s, Burger King and even Quick are among them. The latter having made the profitable choice to transform its restaurant offer into halal. To demystify the trend, we need to highlight the decline in the number of cafés, bars and brasseries, from 200,000 in the 1960s to 25,000 today. The birth of Brioche Dorée, Paul, Croissanterie, McDonald’s and Starbucks has shaken things up. Customers have changed their habits, times and places of consumption. The parallel can be drawn with the bakery sector, whose market share is being nibbled away by chains such as Marie Blachère, Ange or Louise.

The great disruption
While bars, cafés and brasseries are gradually dying out, bouillons are making a strong comeback, driven by a return to values and traditions. And the phenomenon is no longer confined to Paris. While Paris is overflowing with these popular places that can welcome between 950 and 1,800 guests a day, these new-generation bouillons are also springing up in the provinces. And why? Because inflation has had a considerable impact on customers’ attitudes, as they are either consuming less or frequenting lower-priced venues. Better still, all categories are finding their way there, assured of eating a meal that offers excellent value for money. It’s a phenomenon to keep an eye on. Just like Generation Z, which is likely to be a major force in shaking up the status quo. Because these are the customers of tomorrow, they’re the ones we need to be watching, and with the “hourglass effect” in mind. On the one hand, there’s the very expensive, experiential, qualitative and elitist haute cuisine, which people will treat themselves to on an exceptional basis, and on the other hand, there’s everyday necessity options at the lowest possible price, without compromising on quality or quantity. These two wavelengths are rising, and in between, things are sinking. Brasseries, bistros and traditional restaurants are destined to disappear. Only singular places will remain. That’s what customers will be looking for. We’ve gone from an era of generalists and booklength menus to an era of specialists.

Dining will be experiential… or not
Customers won’t return to a restaurant that doesn’t offer them a three-dimensional experience. The wow effect has to be everywhere. In terms of location, décor and ambience, but also on the plate. Quality is already a prerequisite, but it’s now imperative to pay careful attention to the container, the presentation and even the polish of the gesture in the dining room... You have to think Instagram. Thirdly, service. The staff must have a smile, but also innate interpersonal skills, know how to give the right advice and, above all, give guests the impression that they are privileged. Because if they don’t find it of real interest, they won’t dine out and will instead have food delivered. Delivery and dark kitchens are going to explode, assures the founder of Gira Conseil. Beware, however, as it will no longer be a matter of special delivery. The new generation expects to have a wide range of products delivered, whenever and wherever they choose. This represents a new challenge for players such as Amazon, which is testing Amazon Fresh in Paris. This outstanding logistician is well positioned to become the leader in food delivery – but not only that. The Amazon walls already installed in train stations are also a model that could be extended. It will be possible to order your daily purchases and evening meal and collect them from a given point. Remaining in the race will not only be a question of staying one step ahead, but also of displaying a difference.